EUR-USD Technical Analysis 13 March 2016

This is some trade result from last Friday trade as the EUR-USD is expected to make major correction.

EUR-USD 10 March 2016

EUR-USD sudden big boom on the bullish position on the 10 March 2016. There is a sign of major correction might be taking place sooner or later as the MACD and Stochastic in the monthly time frame syncing upwards direction.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 30 March 2015

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 30 March 2015

Time: 11:42 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Falling Wedges
Market Direction	Neutral	Up	Neutral	Down
Market Comments	Short Term = Upside Correction / Retracement Intermediate = Sideways direction Long-Term = Down

Technically on the monthly time frame perspective - there is an obvious indication that the market direction is still in the bearish favors as both MACD and Stochastic synced downwards. There is still plenty of room to fall although there could be brief slow down at the current position 1.08226 for small correction at the minor support level. The downtrend has long been predicted in the previous post of this blog last December 2014 as below

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - December 2014
EUR-USD Technical Analysis - October 2014

The long-term direction still strongly bearish, and it could be heading towards previous year 2001 ground level at 0.9000. It may few months for this to happen.

On the fundamental perspective last week the overall Euro Zone economic data doing not so bad and that probably caused the minor correction at the current level. This week forecast could be the same and keep the fluctuation within the current minor support resistance.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis (27 Oct 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 27 October 2014

Time: 9:09 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	UP	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Full Stochastic	DOWN	DOWN	UP	DOWN
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	Sideways	N/A	N/A	Wedges Down
Market Direction	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	DOWN
Market Comments	Short terms = Sideways | Intermediate = Correction | Long Term = Down

Looking at the broader perspective in the monthly time frame, the Euro-Dollar pair is moving downward sideways. As you can see there are 3 major peaks in the form of falling wedges formation. This is one of the common shape that you find in all historical graph of chart formation. The 4th peak marked the re-testing point of the previous correction level as shown below. At the current position now, there is strong possibility the EUR-USD may go deeper down to test 1.2175 level.

Having MACD and Full Stochastic indicators in contra-direction in the intermediate terms, a minor sign of correction could be underway where 1.2876 is the most likely level to reach. Having said that the USD economic data seems to be dominating throughout the week which could support the acceleration of the pair downfall but that is only if the expected results are better than previous and forecasted.

On the short-term perspective both MACD and Full stochastic (Daily | 4 Hourly) are moving against each another indicating the sign of sideways movement with the risk of correction up to 1.2879. Anything can happen at this point as the market will fluctuate within the range of 1.258 and 1.2826.

Let's see what the open position indicators within the short-range of trading. Read Here how to use the open position indicator. As you can see the summary of open position below the EUR-USD is very much neutral as both buyers and sellers are holding their position not even exceeding reaching range of 60% which interpret the power of bulls and bears are virtually the same.

EUR-USD
Sentiment Index Indicator Provider	Buy	Sell
OANDA	53%	46.95%
Dukas Copy	51.91%	48.09%
DailyFx	54%	46%
Forex Factory	47%	53%
Saxo Bank	58.19%	41.01%
Alpari	51%	49%

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 21 January 2012

The bearish trend is currently taking a short weekly break as it already reaches the intermediate resistance level at 1.3863. An ideal correction point should lies at the previous historical level 1.3314 before continue to ride further downwards. The prospective of next week trade should be focusing on bullish intermediate. We will wait and see what happens next.

Economic Data Impact on EUR-USD record 3

Third day EUR-USD fundamental analysis study

Asian Zone Market:
7:00 AM USD FOMC member hoenig speaks
7:01 AM GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y Previous 2.0% Actual 1.8%
7:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m Previous 5.4% Actual 4.0%
8:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Previous -7.0% Actual -5.7%
9:30am AUD Home Loans m/m Previous -2.9% Actual -1.8%

Summary: Asian zone economic data relatively weak, forcing the market to move down to Fibonacci 23.6% in 5 minutes time frame

Euro Zone Market:
2:08 PM JPY Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y Previous 220.9% Actual 191.8%
4:30 PM GBP Trade Balance Previous -7.3B Actual -7.3B

Summary: Only one euro zone economic data so there is no significant impact. The market just fluctuate within 0% to 100% Fibonacci retracement level.

After Euro Zone: Market start major correction ignoring all the US Zone economic data as this is the moment the market is waiting for. This correction also fueled by expectation of economic data for Asian zone and Euro Zone in the following day which are mostly will impact the market strongly.

So major correction begins here and we will see where will the first stop. Expectation is at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement point that could be more if the market is looking for further major upward movement. The first move is always unpredictable.

Economic Data Impact on EUR-USD Movement record 2

Tuesday 08 June 2010

Asian Zone Market:

1:50 AM CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
3:00 AM USD Consumer Credit m/m Previous -5.4B Actual 1.0B
6:45 AM NZD Manufacturing Sales q/q Previous 0.7% Actual 0.9%
7:01 AM GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y Previous -2.3% Actual 0.8%
7:50 AM JPY Bank Lending y/y Previous -1.8% Actual -2.0%
7:50 AM JPY Current Account Previous 1.77T Actual 1.38T
7:50 AM JPY M2 Money Stock y/y Previous 2.9% Actual 3.1%
7:55 AM USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
9:30 AM AUD NAB Business Confidence Previous 13 Actual 5
1:00 PM JPY Leading Indicators Previous 101.9% Actual 101.7%

Summary: Overall Asian Zone economic data is relatively poor given the opportunity for the USD to strengthen briefly.
Impact: EUR-USD move down to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement in 5 minutes time frame

Gap between Asian and Euro zone = Market make correction upside due to oversold position in the long-term.

Euro Zone Market:

1:45pm CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
1:45pm CHF Unemployment Rate Previous 4.0% Actual 4.0%
2:00pm EUR German Trade Balance Previous 13.0B Actual 13.1B
2:00pm JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment Previous 49.8 Actual 47.7
2:45pm EUR French Trade Balance Previous -4.4B Actual -4.2B
2:50pm EUR French Gov Budget Balance Previous -28.9B Actual -56.2B
3:15pm CHF CPI m/m Previous -28.9B Actual -56.2B
6:00pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m Previous 4.3% Actual 0.9%

Summary: Overall Euro Zone economic data was relatively week
Impact: Market move down to Fibonacci 0% level 5 minutes time frame

US Zone Market:

8:15pm CAD Housing Starts Previous 201K Actual 189K
8:25pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks Previous 201K Actual 189K
10:00pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Previous 48.7 Actual 46.2

Overall Summary: Market data for US market is less convincing and did not make significant impact to the market.
Impact: Little Impact

After US Zone Economic data the market start to move up to the previous resistant level 161% Fibonacci correction at 5 minutes time frame.

 Two days correction seems is almost complete. We will see what the rest of 3 days ahead hold.

Economic Data Impact on EUR-USD market movement record

Now i would like to record the market movement based on fundamental economic data release. This my first time being serious in fundamental study of the market.

Sunday Jun 6 2010

Asian Zone Market:
7.30 AM AUD AIG Construction Index Previous 55.8 Current 53.2
9.30 AM AUD ANZ Job Advertisements m/m 4.5% Current 1.2%

Impact: EUR-USD continue to move down until 1.1877 (Oversold)

Euro Zone Market:
4.30 PM EUR Sentix Investor Confidence Previous -6.5 Actual -4.1
6.00 PM EUR German Factory Orders m/m Previous 5.0% Actual 2.8%

Impact: Market going up for correction current position currently at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement in 15 minutes time frame. Expected correction up to 38.2%

There are no US Zone economic data for the day. So the market should take this opportunity to make correction for today.

No-news period: Market fluctuating between 23.6% to 100% Fibonacci retracement  within 5 minutes time frame. The market still in oversold zone for major time frame

Greece to receive first batch of financial aid today!!

BBC News report that today will be the first batch of the financial to Greece which amounted of €20 billion euros from the total of €110 billion euros. Partly €14.5 billion from the Euro zone member states and the rest from the IMF.

Here comes again our main concern of the impact of the monetary aid may stir temporary turbulence on the EUR-USD trend movement. Despite of all the indicators signal support for long-term bearish continuation, this fundamental data can twist the market for significant correction. If the correction is very strong there might be a shift in direction from bearish to sideways.

Our temporary analysis goes as follow:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom oversold
Summary = Support bearish continuation and also correction due to oversold

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Chart formation: Double top support bearish continuation in the long-term (monthly time frame) chart.
Fundamental: Euro zone - Greece financial aid: Either strong or permanent correction.

Breaking News - Euro breakup talks!!

The Greece financial crisis and the spiraling impact on other fellow members of the European union has led to the growing speculation of potential disintegration of the Euro currency. An estimated of 860 billion-euro debts total combined from all the European Union led by Greece is big financial dilemma that seems to have no solutions at the moment.

Based on Bloomberg report the main reason caused this problem is the uncontrolled taxes and spending among some of the European Union country members which led to mounting debts.

If the integration of Euro indeed happen this would be a historical failure of one of the greatest idea in Europe financial history. And in fact the Quote for EUR-USD that we all love the most will no longer exist in forex trading.

I just hoping that all European Union members will find out a good solution to this problem and maintain the stability of Euro. This is because EUR-USD is the most stable and highly predictable to trade in forex.

Original Article Source: Bloomberg.com

ADP Non-Farm Payroll: No correction for EUR-USD

My bad!! Yesterday was one of the few technical analysis failures that didn't go the way i want it. I was expecting the EUR-USD making correction after the ADP Non-Farm payroll and ISM Non-manufacturing PMI economic data released but instead it went further down to new low level at 1.2797.

This is highly oversold position!!

As of today, the market still showing no sign of correction and all major indicators signal are strong on the downside. At this point i still believe there must be corrective move initiative underway to normalize the market movement. That will certainly happen if the bearish traders are considering to take their profits today.

However nothing is certain because the bearish strength is so strong which could lead to further encouragement for short selling. Traders who have already profiting from the trend ride will not take their profits too early as long as their trailing stop is not hit by the minor market correction. They will continue to ride with the market flow not and will not throw their chances of extra profits if the market move further down.

Anyway here is the technical analysis:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
B. Band = Bottom
Summary: Strong signal of MACD and Stochastic giving the 100% boost to downtrend in short-term

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
B. Band = Bottom
Summary: Strong signal of MACD and Stochastic provide strong bearish in the intermediate term

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
B. Band = Between middle and bottom (Premature position)
Summary: Strong signal of MACD and Stochastic provide strong bearish signal in long-term. In addition Bollinger Band position is prematurely stand between middle and bottom line thus stronger chances for the pair to move down further to the bottom band.

Support Resistant: The pair is approaching significant long-term support level at 1.2671 which is something important to watch. At this point indicators usually fail to provide signal of the immediate reversal initiative when long-term traders are considering to take their profits.

Overall Summary: It is possible that the EUR-USD will be going down all along this week.

ADP Non-Farm Payroll: Pause point for EUR-USD

Strong bearish signal has pushed the EUR-USD deep to oversold position, but is it going to stop soon when the Euro Zone market open or continue going down until the US session open during the ADP non-farm payroll news release.

All technical indicators such as MACD and stochastic still showing fairly strong bearish in all major time frames (daily, weekly, monthly). Approximately 400 pips or about 400% down from the previous Monday position. This means the long-term downtrend is very much underway with minor hurdles along the way.

Using the oversold position and Indicators signal we can assume the following.

1. Oversold position = The market is looking for correction as some traders might be taking profits on this level
2. MACD & Stochastic Down = It will go further down if traders choose not to take their profits yet.

Based on MACD and Stochastic signals i have the feeling that the euro-dollar may continue to move down even when the Euro Zone market open. This is because some traders might still believe in the signals given by the indicators since it is very strong and ignore the correction hint. However during the ADP Non Farm payroll news release the market is expected to have a brief pause here. And this could be it, the point of correction will take place. So we will see what the European traders will do.!!

Greece bailout: What will happen to the EUR-USD?

 

There are hot media speculations about Greece bailout plan to help the country to restore its financial credibility. An estimated of  €110 billion Euros bailout is expected to be given to the Greece government by the help of European Union fellow members and IMF. Direct correlation of this event to the forex market movement give me a great concern, as i am trading on the bearish trend all along at the moment.

So the main concern here the impact of the financial aids to the movement of EUR-USD bearish trend. From technical analysis point of view i expected at least two possibilities that may happen when the bailout is pass to the Greece government.

1. Strong upwards movement that will defy all the indicators that helps to keep the bearish trend. That means there will be long sharp spike upward and the aftermath of this scenario either permanent or temporary. If the result is permanent Uptrend will likely to start from here or otherwise downtrend will continue.
2. If the figure of the bailout is lower than expected then there could be short sharp spike and the market will then quickly normalize to continue its downtrend direction.

This is serious and dangerous situation to be in as traders are very cautious about taking their money from the market to avoid unexpected losses. Strong market turbulence will affect the EUR-USD at some point, so be wary and keep up to dates with the financial news and economic calender.

Note: In certain occasion the market may move ahead of the event or sometimes during the event announcement itself. So nobody can really tell exactly when the big market traders will make their move. In this case i will wait for the first move and analyze indicators position to make ride along with the next move.


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EUR-USD Post Analysis - After Non Farm Payroll.

It has proven again that the market make a brief upwards movement before making continuation further downside after the Non-Farm Payroll release data last Friday February 07, 2010. This is one significant observation to take into account when trading in Forex.

This experience is taken from several observations of the NFP news release. I have no concrete evident why the market generally behaving this way, but i have a personal opinion that the technical traders are out of the market briefly to safeguard their profits and give way to the NFP or the news traders to take their turns. Consequently after the impact within 15 to 30 minutes later technical traders will be involve again in the market based on their analysis.

As a result of the technical traders action the market is briefly moving upwards last Friday. Then making continuation after that.

So just remember about the NFP is a dangerous lottery moment where technical traders are not so interested to trade. Only the gamblers love this moment, its like flipping coin game where 50:50 chances involve. If you are lucky you could be making a lot of money within 5 minutes range. Otherwise is also true for the unlucky :)

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Forex daily technical analysis - 13 April 2009

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.

As of today it the pair direction is still hanging in the balance without clear direction where it should go. The possibility of moving up or down is still unknown as fundamental influence can easily the market into turbulence. By rights based on technical perspective the pair should be going down gradually at small scale retracement at every twist and turn.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

GBP-USD

Likewise the pound-dollar pair also following the same course of direction as eur-dollar during last week movement but in a smaller scale. Unlike eur-usd it is only having a minor correction and still having the chances of moving up to continue intermediate terms retracement.
As of today still we cannot determine the clear direction as fundamental factors i.e. economic data release can affect the movement in any direction. However based on technical perspective we the market should be moving down to 1.4603 level and then continue the intermediate term process upside.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

AUD-USD

The only pair between that going the right direction for retracement is this australian dollar-us dollar pair. It follows correctly the intermediate correction process for the rest of last week. You can see this as the market moving upside following the slow stochastic. On weekly time frame candlestick is getting smaller indicating the market is weakening to move further upside. However we will never want to underestimate an overbought situation if the fundamental factors affect the market so much.
As of today we expect correction downward to 0.7142. Or if not then it could be still moving upside to go for overbought.
Intermediate Trend (weekly time frame) - upside intermediate correction
Long Trend (Monthly time frame) - down or bearish trend

forex EUR-USD Fundamental Analysis

After a long years of devaluation for the US dollar, it is now pay back time. The dollar is moving on the right track in searching for the ideal equilibrium point against any other currencies in the world such as Euro, Pound Sterling, Japanese Yen, Aussie dollar, etc.

A small improvement of the economic data in the Euro zone did not even make any impact on the Euro-Us Dollar pair. As you can see below comparison of Euro Zone economic data figures and the movement of Euro-USD still very much stronger.

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