Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Greece bailout: What will happen to the EUR-USD?

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There are hot media speculations about Greece bailout plan to help the country to restore its financial credibility. An estimated of  €110 billion Euros bailout is expected to be given to the Greece government by the help of European Union fellow members and IMF. Direct correlation of this event to the forex market movement give me a great concern, as i am trading on the bearish trend all along at the moment.

So the main concern here the impact of the financial aids to the movement of EUR-USD bearish trend. From technical analysis point of view i expected at least two possibilities that may happen when the bailout is pass to the Greece government.
  1. Strong upwards movement that will defy all the indicators that helps to keep the bearish trend. That means there will be long sharp spike upward and the aftermath of this scenario either permanent or temporary. If the result is permanent Uptrend will likely to start from here or otherwise downtrend will continue.
  2. If the figure of the bailout is lower than expected then there could be short sharp spike and the market will then quickly normalize to continue its downtrend direction.
This is serious and dangerous situation to be in as traders are very cautious about taking their money from the market to avoid unexpected losses. Strong market turbulence will affect the EUR-USD at some point, so be wary and keep up to dates with the financial news and economic calender.

Note: In certain occasion the market may move ahead of the event or sometimes during the event announcement itself. So nobody can really tell exactly when the big market traders will make their move. In this case i will wait for the first move and analyze indicators position to make ride along with the next move.

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