Saturday, February 15, 2014

GBP-USD Technical Analysis for Next Week (15 Feb 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9
Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7
Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2
Date: 15 Feb 2014
Time: 4:44 PM (+8 GMT)

GBP-USD
Technical.Indicators 4 Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly
MACD Up Up Up Up
Full Stochastic Up Up Down Up
Bollinger Bands N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chart Formation N/A N/A N/A N/A
Market Direction Up Up Up Up
Market Comments This is an obvious bullish for the Cable (GBP-USD) as you can see short-term to long-term indicators all showing upside except in the intermediate terms (weekly time frame) where there is contra direction between the MACD and Stochastic. In this case MACD most likely the winner and that will support further upsides.

The previous week 10 to 14 Feb 2014. The upside movement is the result of consistent economic data for the pound sterling. While on the other hands there is slight weakness in the dollars economic data.

Based on the economic calenders Forex Factory the GBP economic data still dominated the first 3 days of the week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday) and if there are all positives it could trigger another breakout to target the highest resistance at 1.69989.

Despite of the convincing direction of the technical indicators there are risks that we need to consider that could take the direction to reversal where correction is the most likely to first to take charge.

1. Sentiment indicators - This can be view by the open position ratios from various broker such as OANDA, DukasCopy, SaxoBank, Alpari, etc refer to Open Position Indicators. Based on the consensus from all brokers the crowds seems to prefer bearish at this time and as you can see at least 80% - 90% open position are selling.

2. The chart (Monthly time frame) is already reaching the most ideal position and correction is waiting to make ways at any moment of negative economic data.

3. What if the first 3 days of next week GBP data are weaker compare to the USD correction could make a massive free falls.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Forex Fundamental Observation - Week 1 (Feb 2014)

This is fundamental observation based on economic data release to prove that market fluctuations / movements is not entirely based on technical factors. In fact in smaller time frames the market is fluctuating based on 95% the outcome of the economic data versus its previous data. The table and chart shows during economic data release the market will start to make a move temporarily or permanently to target certain support/resistance points.

This analysis have open perspective to a new level of understanding on the Forex market fluctuation and improve effectiveness in practical trades. The question is can you predict where the crowds is thinking to move ahead, when and how much?

Date  Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
3 Feb 2014 11:00 PM USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57 56.2 51.3


Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
3 Feb 2014 5:30 PM GBP Manufacturing PMI 57.2 57.1 56.7

11:00 PM USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57 56.2 51.3

Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
4 Feb 2014 11:30 AM AUD Cash Rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

11:30 AM AUD RBA Rate Statement





















Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
4 Feb 2014 5:30 PM GBP Construction PMI 62.1 61.6 64.6


Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
5 Feb 2014 9:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 227K 191K 175K
9:15 PM CAD Building Permits m/m -6.6% 2.3% -4.1%




Date Time Currency Econommic Data Previous Forecast Actual
5 Feb 2014 5:45 AM NZD Employment Change q/q 1.2% 0.6% 1.1%
5:45 AM NZD Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.0% 6.0%


Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
5 Feb 2014 5:30 PM GBP Services PMI 58.8 59.1 58.3

Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
5 Feb 20149:15 PM USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 227K 191K 175K
11:00 PM USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53 53.6 54




Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
06 Feb 2014 8:30 AM AUD Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%


AUD Trade Balance 0.08B -0.27B 0.47B



Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
06 Feb 2014 8:45 PM EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

9:30 PM CAD Trade Balance -1.5B 0.7B -1.7B


EUR ECB Press Conference




USD Trade Balance -34.6B -35.8B -38.7B


USD Unemployment Claims 351K 337K 331K



Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
7 Feb 2014 9:30 PM CAD Employment Change -45.9K 19.7K 29.4K

9:30 PM CAD Unemployment Rate 7.2% 7.1% 7.0%

9:30 USD Non-Farm Employment Change 75K 185K 113K

9:30 USD Unemployment Rate 6.7% 6.7% 6.6%



Date Time Currency Economic Data Previous Forecast Actual
7 Feb 2014 5:30 PM GBP Manufacturing Production m/m -0.1% 0.6% 0.3%

9:30 PM USD Non-Farm Employment Change 75K 185K 113K

9:30 PM USD Unemployment Rate 6.7% 6.7% 6.6%


Sunday, February 2, 2014

Technical Outlook EUR-USD and GBP-USD overall week 1 (3 to 7 Feb 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9
Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7
Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2
Date: 02 February 2014
Time: 2:02 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators 4 Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly
MACD Down Up Down Up
Full Stochastic Up Down Down Up
Bollinger Bands N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chart Formation N/A N/A N/A Flag Sideway
Market Direction Neutral Neutral Down Up
Market Comments The overall movement of the EUR-USD still going upwards in the long term.
The gradual upward fluctuation should linger within 1.38046 (resistance) and support (1.33599). This is supported by the monthly time frame MACD and Stochastic both moving upwards direction, but due the correction is already reaching its 1.36733 it may or may not breakout upwards because this is the most ideal correction level based on the Chart Formation structure.

Conclusion: The long-term will have gradual upwards movement. There is a possibility of breakout upwards (the unpredictable situation)

In the weekly time frame both MACD and Stochastic indicators is showing the opposite. There is a strong chances the second candlestick will form another red (bearish) candle for the overall next week movement with the expected target at the previous price level = 1.34849

Conclusion: There is strong chances next week from 3 to 7 Feb 2013 could be a bearish movement for EUR-USD

EUR-USD technical analysis Feb 2014


GBP-USD
Technical.Indicators 4 Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly
MACD Up Down Up Up
Full Stochastic Down Down Down Up
Bollinger Bands N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chart Formation N/A N/A N/A Head Shoulder
Market Direction Neutral Down Neutral Up
Market Comments MACD and Stochastic moving up indicates strong bullish for the GBP-USD pair. However just like the EUR-USD it has reached an ideal place for correction and it will a lot of volumes to breakout. For the time being the long term movement is most likely to be gradual upward sideways movement with chances of breakout.

An opposing direction between MACD and Stochastic in the weekly time frames indicate temporary downwards movement with high chances of reversal. We will see next week could be zig zag fluctuation for this pair within the support resistance range of 1.66220 and 1.62688 by next week from 3 to 7 Feb 2013

GBP-USD technical analysis