Thursday, May 6, 2010

ADP Non-Farm Payroll: No correction for EUR-USD

Candlestick Charting For DummiesBeyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed (Wiley Finance)
My bad!! Yesterday was one of the few technical analysis failures that didn't go the way i want it. I was expecting the EUR-USD making correction after the ADP Non-Farm payroll and ISM Non-manufacturing PMI economic data released but instead it went further down to new low level at 1.2797.

This is highly oversold position!!

As of today, the market still showing no sign of correction and all major indicators signal are strong on the downside. At this point i still believe there must be corrective move initiative underway to normalize the market movement. That will certainly happen if the bearish traders are considering to take their profits today.

However nothing is certain because the bearish strength is so strong which could lead to further encouragement for short selling. Traders who have already profiting from the trend ride will not take their profits too early as long as their trailing stop is not hit by the minor market correction. They will continue to ride with the market flow not and will not throw their chances of extra profits if the market move further down.

Anyway here is the technical analysis:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
B. Band = Bottom
Summary: Strong signal of MACD and Stochastic giving the 100% boost to downtrend in short-term

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
B. Band = Bottom
Summary: Strong signal of MACD and Stochastic provide strong bearish in the intermediate term

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
B. Band = Between middle and bottom (Premature position)
Summary: Strong signal of MACD and Stochastic provide strong bearish signal in long-term. In addition Bollinger Band position is prematurely stand between middle and bottom line thus stronger chances for the pair to move down further to the bottom band.

Support Resistant: The pair is approaching significant long-term support level at 1.2671 which is something important to watch. At this point indicators usually fail to provide signal of the immediate reversal initiative when long-term traders are considering to take their profits.

Overall Summary: It is possible that the EUR-USD will be going down all along this week.

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