Monday, April 13, 2009

Forex daily technical analysis - 13 April 2009

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.
As of today it the pair direction is still hanging in the balance without clear direction where it should go. The possibility of moving up or down is still unknown as fundamental influence can easily the market into turbulence. By rights based on technical perspective the pair should be going down gradually at small scale retracement at every twist and turn.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

GBP-USD

Likewise the pound-dollar pair also following the same course of direction as eur-dollar during last week movement but in a smaller scale. Unlike eur-usd it is only having a minor correction and still having the chances of moving up to continue intermediate terms retracement.
As of today still we cannot determine the clear direction as fundamental factors i.e. economic data release can affect the movement in any direction. However based on technical perspective we the market should be moving down to 1.4603 level and then continue the intermediate term process upside.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

AUD-USD

The only pair between that going the right direction for retracement is this australian dollar-us dollar pair. It follows correctly the intermediate correction process for the rest of last week. You can see this as the market moving upside following the slow stochastic. On weekly time frame candlestick is getting smaller indicating the market is weakening to move further upside. However we will never want to underestimate an overbought situation if the fundamental factors affect the market so much.
As of today we expect correction downward to 0.7142. Or if not then it could be still moving upside to go for overbought.
Intermediate Trend (weekly time frame) - upside intermediate correction
Long Trend (Monthly time frame) - down or bearish trend

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