EUR-USD and GBP-USD Technical (1 - 5 December 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 29 November 2014

Time: 8:05 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	UP	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Full Stochastic	UP	DOWN	UP	DOWN
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	UP	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	DOWN
Market Comments	In short term EUR-USD fluctuation is very much neutral last week from 24 to 28 November 2014 as it goes up for correction at 1.2529 and then it goes down to 50% retracement at 1.24511. This 50% retracement where will the EUR-USD market goes to next week? Fundamental Perspective Forexfactory economic calender records from 1 to 5 December 2014 could be another week for high turbulence as there mix economic data between the US and Economic. Technical Perspective From technical perspective we can see that the entire trend is going down as shown by the MACD and Stochastic from monthly time frame. However in the intermediate and short term both indicators are going against each other which means the fluctuation could be neutral either ups or down. This is another factor that could confirm the turbulence fluctuation next week. Fluctuation Range: High = 1.2529 Low = 1.2361

4 Hourly Chart for EUR-USD showing the current position standing at 50% retracement level.

GBP-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	DOWN	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Full Stochastic	DOWN	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	DOWN	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Market Comments	Last week movement the GBP-USD make up correction to a new high at 1.58154 but then went down to the previous low at 1.5627. As the MACD and Stochastic in the daily time frame still going up there is strong chance it may go up temporarily at least 50% from the current position. However the intermediate and long term are both indicating down trend, there will be strong risk to play upside position. Where will it move next week? Fundamental Perspective: Mix economic data may cause an unpredictable situation, playing upside would be most unfavorable because of the risk of the major downtrend. Bad economic data from the UK could push the market even deeper down. Otherwise it will retrace at 50% from the current position Technical Perspective: In daily time frame there is still hope of going up at the very least up to 50% from the current position as MACD and Stochastic still synced upwards direction. However on the weekly and monthly time frame it is obvious the pair is going down big time. Range of Fluctuation High = 1.5815 Mid = 1.5712 Low = 1.5627

4 Hourly Chart for GBP-USD showing it is currently standing at the previous low level at 1.56271

Forex Technical Analysis (19 May 2013) - Next Week Outlook

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 19 May 2013

Time: 10:19 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	Head/Shoulder	Flag
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	As discussed here (Forex Technical Analysis) Now that the Head/Shoulder formation is becoming obvious in the weekly time frame and MACD/Stochastic indicators also almost synced downward direction. There is strong indication downtrend is about to continue its course of direction. All along next week could be a major downfalls with the expected price target should be around 1.26XX

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	As discussed last week (AUD-USD Weekly outlook) the second candle has been formed as expected in the weekly time frame. Sitting at the strong resistant level the movement still have some more gas to go further down as MACD/Stochastic signal still goes down in the monthly time frame. This is the trickiest pair to trade but i have we must believe this time it should go down beyond the resistant 0.97XX

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Up	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	All the major time frame MAC/Stochastic already point upwards. Supported by Head/Shoulder formation (reverse) in the monthly time frame and also the squeezing size of the bollinger band. The major breakout that all has been waiting for is about to burst.The month of May should be bullish all along and nothing can stop it this time. The target could be as high as 1.21XX with the estimated volume of 1900 pips altogether. We will wait and see.

AUD-USD Weekly Technical Analysis (13 May 2013)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 13 May 2013

Time: 9:48 PM (+8 GMT)

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	MACD and Stochastic both goes down in Weekly time frame supported by Daily and Monthly Time Frame. Going short for AUD-USD with the expected target at at least at 0.9810 by the end of this week. We wait and see if this is true.

Daily Technical Analysis - 15 Jul 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 15 July 2012

Time: 12:29 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Unknown	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Overall direction is down trend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Top	Middle	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Unknown	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	The quiet movement keeps market flat but beware of major downtrend

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Top	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Unknown
Market Direction	Up	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	As the market already already at the bottom, the major trend is flat.

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Flat
Full Stochastic	UP	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	The major trend is - gradual downtrend

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Top	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Unknown
Market Direction	Up	Up	Up	Down
Market Comments	Despite of all the short and intermediate term goes uptrend the long-term is downtrend

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Top	Top
Chart Formation	Unknown	Unknown	Unknown	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	The long-term future is major up-trend

Daily Technical Analysis - 10 Jun 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: Sunday 10 June 2012

Time: 10:01 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Middle	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Down	Up	Down	Down
Market Comments	Correction in the short-term but long-term is going downtrend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Unknown	Sideway trend	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Neutral	Down	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term down but long-term is neutral sideway trend waiting downtrend breakout

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Middle	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Uptrend	Double Top	Sideway trend	Sideway down trend
Market Direction	Neutral	Neutral	Down	Up
Market Comments	The short-term is making re-tracement and long-term sideway downward trend

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Neutral
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Down	Neutral
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Middle	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Upward trend	Double Top	Sideway trend	Sideway trend
Market Direction	Down	Up	Down	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term correction but long-term is sideway down trending

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Top	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Up trend	Double Top	Double Top	Double Top
Market Direction	Down	Up	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short-term correction and long-term is initiating downtrend

Daily Technical Analysis - 28 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 28 May 2012

Time: 9:23 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Down	Flag Downward	Flag Downward	Flag Down
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term and Long-term down trend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Flag Upward	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Down	Sideway Trending	Sideway trending
Market Comments	Short-term downtrend | Long-term sideway and downtre

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Head/Shoulder	Sideway trending	Sideway trending
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Up
Market Comments	Sideway trending gradual downwards

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Down	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Down	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term downtrend and Long-term sideway downward

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Flag Upward
Market Direction	Up	Neutral	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short and Intermediate term goes down but the true direction based on chart formation is upward trending

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	Rally Up	Unknown Sideway	Double Bottom	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Down	Up	Up	Up
Market Comments	The pair is waiting for major break out for uptrend

Daily Technical Analysis - 19 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 19 May 2012

Time: 11:38 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Up	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short-term upward retracement while the intermediate term is neutral and long-term is downtrend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Gradual upward	Double Top	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Down	Up	Up
Market Comments	Short-term is retracement downward while the intermediate is upward and long term is gradual sideway uptrend. The bollinger band in Monthly time frame is squeezing smaller - which indicates sign of breakout.

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally downward	Double Top	Double Bottom	Unknown
Market Direction	Down	Down	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	This is odd pair. Despite of the long-term indicators all showing upward the market is moving downtrend. However the Bollingerband is getting squeezed which indicate a sign of breakout anytime soon most probably uptrend.

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Rally downtrend	Rally downtrend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Up
Market Comments	The short-term all heading downtrend. In the long-term is gradual sideway downtrend

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Rally Uptrend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	All indicators showing downtrend but the true direction of this pair based on the long-term (monthly time frame) is showing uptrend. Currently there are only 2 peaks of the flag for the long-term and 1 peak left to go. So there is still strong fuel of trend in the long-term.

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	Rally Uptrend	Rally Uptrend	Double Bottom	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Up	Up	Up	Up
Market Comments	All short-term showing uptrend and the Bollinger Band is also squeezing. This may indicate major long-term uptrend in the near future.

Daily Technical Analysis - 17 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 17 May 2012

Time: 11:19 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Gradual downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downtrend
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short Term and Long-term downtrend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Flag Uptrend	Sideway Trending	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Down	Neutral	Sideway Up
Market Comments	The trend is moving sideway but the major breakout waiting for downtrend

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Gradual Downtrend	Double Top	Sideway downtrend	Gradual downtrend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	Gradual sideway downtrend waiting for the long-term major breakout uptrend

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Sideway downtrend	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Market is gradually going down and waiting for the major breakout in long-term

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Middle
Chart Formation	Gradual downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Flag Uptrend
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	This is tricky - indicators shows downtrend but the true movement is uptrend

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Uptrend	Unknown	Unknown	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Up	Up	Up	Neutral
Market Comments	At the bottom of downtrend and there is strong possibility of uptrend in long term

Daily Technical Analysis - 15 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 15 May 2012

Time: 9:12 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally downward	Flag Downward	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short-Term Down | Long-term Down

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Middle	Top	Middle
Chart Formation	Flag Downward	Flag Upward	Flag Upward	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Down	Up	Up
Market Comments	Short-Term Down | Long-Term Gradual and Up

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Flag Downward	Flag Downward	Sideway Trending	Sideway Trend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Up	Up
Market Comments	Short-Term Up | Long-term downward and sideway trending

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Head/Shoulder	Sideway Downward Trend	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short-term and Long-term gradual sideway downtrend

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Upward Trend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short and Intermediate term down | Long-term upward trending

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Upward	Sideway trend	Sideway Trend	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Up	Up	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term Upward movement | Long-term neutral and possibly breakout up

Gold Price and AUD-USD correlation analysis

Strong correlation between gold price and the Australian Dollar may give us the clue of the long-term direction of the AUD-USD. As you can see the ever increasing price of Gold, maintaining the bullish strength of Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD-USD). Perhaps this condition could continue for many more years to come if demand for Gold is never fade away. As a result strong possibility that the AUD-USD pair maybe going for the overbought condition. We will see this in few months to come.

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AUD-USD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)

AUD-USD recent upward movement is one special case that we cannot predict in forex. By right based on weekly slow stochastic and candlestick counting (weekly time frame) it should move down, but in reality it chose to move up (overbought). This is where many traders can fail if they rely too much on their technical indicators and strategies to predict the market direction.

Even though this phenomena happens occasionally but the impact is like losing frequently. At this point you have no idea if the market will continue the overbought or reverse soon. Throughout my long-time observation i have encountered many situations like this and despite of my familiarity with it still i failed to avoid losses when it happens. This is because i just cannot predict when exactly the market will move.

Therefore sometimes i just use my guts feeling to trade and usually close my position if it is not moving according to my expectation after a certain period of time.

AUD-USD post analysis

Remember in the beginning of April i was analyzing that AUD-USD will at least form 2 pieces of white candlestick on the major correction. And this analysis was valid throughout all the month of April. Now you can see the result yourself.

Previous Analysis: AUD-USD Technical Analysis (31 March 2009)
Here is the previous candlestick chart in the beginning of April 1, 2009

Below is the new chart with another white candlestick formation at the end of April 29, 2009.


Now you can think about how effective is this system, at least showing some accuracy over a month time.

Forex daily technical analysis - 13 April 2009

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.

As of today it the pair direction is still hanging in the balance without clear direction where it should go. The possibility of moving up or down is still unknown as fundamental influence can easily the market into turbulence. By rights based on technical perspective the pair should be going down gradually at small scale retracement at every twist and turn.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

GBP-USD

Likewise the pound-dollar pair also following the same course of direction as eur-dollar during last week movement but in a smaller scale. Unlike eur-usd it is only having a minor correction and still having the chances of moving up to continue intermediate terms retracement.
As of today still we cannot determine the clear direction as fundamental factors i.e. economic data release can affect the movement in any direction. However based on technical perspective we the market should be moving down to 1.4603 level and then continue the intermediate term process upside.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

AUD-USD

The only pair between that going the right direction for retracement is this australian dollar-us dollar pair. It follows correctly the intermediate correction process for the rest of last week. You can see this as the market moving upside following the slow stochastic. On weekly time frame candlestick is getting smaller indicating the market is weakening to move further upside. However we will never want to underestimate an overbought situation if the fundamental factors affect the market so much.
As of today we expect correction downward to 0.7142. Or if not then it could be still moving upside to go for overbought.
Intermediate Trend (weekly time frame) - upside intermediate correction
Long Trend (Monthly time frame) - down or bearish trend

AUD-USD Technical Analysis (31 March 2009)

As far as bearish trend is concerned, in the long-term perspective the AUD-USD is always bearish at least for now and perhaps for another year based on Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator downward direction in monthly time frame. In the intermediate trend we can see it is currently having correction and resistance activities going on within the range 0.7133 (upper bollinger band) and 0.6169 (bottom bollinger band).

Despite of that concerns, what matters most to us is the intraday or short-term trading where we should make money. So where is going along this month? in order to answer this question i would like to refer back to my previous post in the past about candlestick chart counting.Counting candlestick, Candlestick counting post analysis, EUR-USD post analysis, EUR-USD Technical Analysis.

Based on the observation and back testing results that i have done in the past using candlestick counting we will use it to predict the overall movement of the AUD-USD along the month of April until it reaches the end of the month.
Alright now that we see 1 piece of white candlestick is already formed at the end of March. Since the slow stochastic in the monthly time frame is already iniatially moving upwards there for we expect another 1 piece of white candlestick will be formed again until the end month of April. We will test again the validity of this candlestick counting theory for this month.

If this theory is true, so if the if market is expected to move upside to form another white candlestick until the end month of April. Therefore we can estimate the movement of market within weekly and daily time frame as well. So whatever comes down during the period of weekly or daily must go up and this is valid throughout the month of April.

Let's observe and give me your feedback what is your opinion on this.

Forex AUD-USD Technical Analysis

The current scenario of AUD-USD situation is the result of its stubborn long-term bullish effect. The trend was moving up for long years and it shows no stopping sign until it goes overbought. As pay back time came the pair now is in the possession of the bear and the worst case, it is extremely oversold.

At this extreme oversold high certainty of reversal is ultimately imminent, because the big money is held in the hands of the few. As emotions starting to build up they will close their position to harvest profits, which may result in the market creating rapid reversal. Just watch out for monthly slow stochastic movement, if there is any sign to upward direction for this pair. Some others are already anxiously waiting for the big reversal that make up at least minimum total of 500 pips or more.

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