Wednesday, November 25, 2020

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 26-Nov-2020

As discussed in the previous analysis based on the historical data - it seems the Euro Dollar pair is eyeing to break the major resistance at 1.19041. But danger still linger as there could be a huge potential of trap to go down and the volume gonna be big around 100 or more pips. Therefore at this point we will see if the support will hold at least at the current position 1.18051 or down to 1.17252. 

At the current position the posibility of fluctuations are very high as you can see - and of course it keeps pushing a little higher after it goes for corrections. While the pound dollar already break through passed the major resistance. There is strong potential for further uptrends for many months to come. 

So where is the danger trap in this uptrend? You can view this on the weekly time frame - as the market push high and higher probably pass the resistance there is a strong potential it could pull back big time because of the weekly MACD. That is very certain and it could trigger anytime based on any ridiculous fundamental data. See below charts below
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Wednesday, November 18, 2020

High Risk High Rewards Gold and Bitcoin Trading Forex

If you are looking for high risk high rewards trade in the forex market - you shouldn't trade the pure currency pairs with the like of EUR-USD, GBP-USD, AUD-USD etc. There are two pairs associated with USD with high volumes even on the 5 minutes charts like no other and they are the XAUUSD (Gold) and BTCUSD (BitCoin). On the weekly time frames the volume traded up to 50,000 pips at average of 20,000 to 30,000 pips that is a massive amount that you can't find on the normal currency pairs. For the Bitcoin even at 5 minutes candle volume average around 500 pips and up to 6000 pips maximum that way more than you can expect. 

Normal currency pairs like the EUR-USD or GBP-USD only volumes only max at 1000 pips per week at average of 200 to 300 pips and 5 minutes candle only around 4 to 20 pips that is very small compared to the Bitcoin / USD and Gold / USD. 

But of course high rewards also comes with high risk and one big mistake could blow your account instantly without mercy unless you trade only a small fraction although even that also still high risk.

See below Gold weekly time frame pips volumes at average of 7000 to 15000 pips
Bitcoin weekly time frame pips average 7000 to 16000 pips
EUR-USD weekly time frame average pips around 100 to 200 pips
GBP-USD weekly time frame average volume around 200 to 400 pips
Bitcoin 5 minutes time frame average volume around 1000 pips

The high amount of volume traded for Gold and Bitcoin is even worthy to trade within 1 minute time frames because it still generate more pips than the common currency pairs. 

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Saturday, November 7, 2020

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 07-Nov-2020

We thought a big move downward in the early last week would continue further downward EUR-USD Technical Analysis 01-Nov-2020 - but instead it swing back up quickly in the midweek to proceed with the major uptrend. So we were dead wrong and that also coincide with the election day.

Today we put aside of the notions of major correction and look back into the historical data of price actions that is closely similar to what happened last week. Below is weekly and monthly time frame respectively that occur in the year 2011 about 9 years ago. Indicators analysis

Technical Indicators 4 Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly
Fibonacci Retracement N/A N/A
MACD Down Up
Fully Stochastic Up Down
Bollinger Band Bottom Middle
Chart Formation
Market Direction
Market Comments

Look at the weekly candle it falls deep and then reversed higher a little bit very similar to what happen currently on the weekly time frame. And then the continuation is major up trend that lasted 4 months from January until April that is a long long major uptrend before it retraces for correction again.

Now let's take a look at the current candlestick chart for weekly and monthly time frame this month. After the deep fall to the middle band the weekly candlestick immediately reverse up exceeding the previous. Very similar to what happen in the year 2011 above.

If history will repeat itself just like 9 years ago the EUR-USD will go for a long long uptrend. We will see what happen next if next week the candle keeps going up.

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Sunday, November 1, 2020

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 01-Nov-2020

The long awaited major correction for the EUR-USD finally visible - this is shown by the MACD Stochastic signal in the weekly time frame chart below. 

eur usd technical analysis chart for november 2020

The probability to break the current support level 1.16487 is 85% certain as long as MACD and Stochastic in the weekly time frame keep moving down the experience could be painfully fast or slow till you get bored of waiting. It could go down as low as 1.14896 (61.8% Fibonacci level) or even lower at 1.13454 (50% Fibonacci level) it depends on the upcoming market situations.

The rest of currency pairs with the like of GBP-USD, AUD-USD, EUR-JPY all showing similar patterns although may not be as worst as EUR-USD. Let's see how far down it will go

Saturday, October 31, 2020

The ideal and precision of support and resistance that never comes in forex trading

Some people believe in the ideal while others looking for precision - but neither can happen consistently although it does occasionally. In this topic we discussed specifically about support and resistance level as it is the basic fundamental of success in technical analysis. If you can master at least of 80% accuracy there will be great success in forex trading career.

Ideally the support and resistance level represented by the Bollinger bands indicator - you can see it on the chart and it is pretty much quite close. Some people will use historical data where support and resistance are determine by the previous high and low of the price level. The idealist usually used these methods to determine their support and resistance but very often it breach the ideal and go for overbought / oversold positions.

The part where this mentality will fail usually at the higher time frames i.e. Weekly and Monthly. Because when it breached the ideal support and resistance level and going into overbought / oversold zone it will takes very long to make reversal or corrections. Although the reversal is imminent but if it takes two weeks or a month most novice will usually close at loss positions already because they can't afford to wait.

Another type of mentality are those people who looks for precision - usually using the MACD indicator convergence / divergence to determine exactly the point of true reversal. But then again there are possibility the market move against it or reverse faster than the MACD signal. Most often of all novice traders usually missing the bigger reversals volumes because MACD is too late to tell when it reverse.

So to sum up everything what make all the failing in forex trading because there are no precision and no ideal. 

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