EUR-USD Technical Analysis 01-Nov-2020

The long awaited major correction for the EUR-USD finally visible - this is shown by the MACD Stochastic signal in the weekly time frame chart below. 

The probability to break the current support level 1.16487 is 85% certain as long as MACD and Stochastic in the weekly time frame keep moving down the experience could be painfully fast or slow till you get bored of waiting. It could go down as low as 1.14896 (61.8% Fibonacci level) or even lower at 1.13454 (50% Fibonacci level) it depends on the upcoming market situations.

The rest of currency pairs with the like of GBP-USD, AUD-USD, EUR-JPY all showing similar patterns although may not be as worst as EUR-USD. Let's see how far down it will go

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 07-Oct-2020

Just as discussed in the previous post EUR-USD Technical Analysis 05-Oct-2020 the euro dollar pair is experiencing major corrections and it is a very dangerous territory to trade as the market maker willing to play the swing games against the small traders. They have the power to change the market direction in any directions to poach stop losses.

As you can see bullish movement for the past 2 days is just a fake uptrend continuations - and today it immediately reverse to bearish following MACD + stochastic indicators signal in the weekly time frame. This correction maybe huge and traders are easily tempted by the fluctuation patterns. 

So the overall direction still heading towards middle band of the weekly time frame or maybe lower. 

Economic data showing nothing significant and that may trigger quicker downfall of the EUR-USD pair as there are nothing stand in the way of the intended corrections. European and US market sessions today will decide what happen. We will see!

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 05-Oct-2020

From technical point of view the current position of the eur-dollar is at the crossroads of further corrections down to the weekly middle bands of the Bollinger indicator or further continuation upwards as per monthly time frame indicator. You don't really want to get caught on both side and if any trades are initiated should be taken care with full attentions. This is because both ways are possible and this is the territory where the market maker will play elusive games against the small traders at the small time frames and of course automated robot trading burn your account at this point. 

The market maker is not hesitate to pull the trigger because of both directions are possible and they are playing to harvest money from all the stop losses set by novice traders. If you play up they will play down and vice versa and eventually you got confuse where will the market go. Without a clear signal and conflicting technical indicators you also will be lost in decisions. 

Therefore it is best to wait until MACD and Stochastic shows a clear direction in synced than it would be easier to decide and you will have confident in your trades. 

EUR-USD Technical Analysis

Despite of most people emphasize on the timing of the market sessions there will be big moves to the Forex. For example the European and US market open usually expect the largest movement and this is true in some cases but it is not always the happening. This is an example where bigger move in the Asian market session which is unexpected. So there is no perfect truth in the market sessions movement but rather how far it should go and retrace that's the most important point

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 29 Aug 2017

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Set tings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 29 Aug 2017

Time: 3:37 PM

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
Fibonacci Retracement
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Fully Stochastic	Down	Up	Up	Up
Bollinger Band
Chart Formation
Market Direction	Neutral	Up	Up	Up
Market Comments

As MACD and Stochastic indicators in the major time frames all heading upwards there is a strong indication the bullish direction will hit the previous major resistance at 1.2230 mark. The EUR is definitely gain strength even after Brexit effect.

EUR-USD Trade result 03 May 2016

EUR-USD 17 March 2016 trade results

EUR-USD trade Thursday 17 March 2016 - as correction is moving along the way upside.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 13 March 2016

This is some trade result from last Friday trade as the EUR-USD is expected to make major correction.

EUR-USD Trade 19 Feb 2016

EUR-USD trading last Friday 19 Feb 2016. There is a strong sentiment the EUR-USD might be heading for major correction upside as the MACD and Stochastic at the monthly time frame is almost sync upward direction

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 30 March 2015

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 30 March 2015

Time: 11:42 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Falling Wedges
Market Direction	Neutral	Up	Neutral	Down
Market Comments	Short Term = Upside Correction / Retracement Intermediate = Sideways direction Long-Term = Down

Technically on the monthly time frame perspective - there is an obvious indication that the market direction is still in the bearish favors as both MACD and Stochastic synced downwards. There is still plenty of room to fall although there could be brief slow down at the current position 1.08226 for small correction at the minor support level. The downtrend has long been predicted in the previous post of this blog last December 2014 as below

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - December 2014
EUR-USD Technical Analysis - October 2014

The long-term direction still strongly bearish, and it could be heading towards previous year 2001 ground level at 0.9000. It may few months for this to happen.

On the fundamental perspective last week the overall Euro Zone economic data doing not so bad and that probably caused the minor correction at the current level. This week forecast could be the same and keep the fluctuation within the current minor support resistance.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis (27 Oct 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 27 October 2014

Time: 9:09 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	UP	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Full Stochastic	DOWN	DOWN	UP	DOWN
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	Sideways	N/A	N/A	Wedges Down
Market Direction	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	DOWN
Market Comments	Short terms = Sideways | Intermediate = Correction | Long Term = Down

Looking at the broader perspective in the monthly time frame, the Euro-Dollar pair is moving downward sideways. As you can see there are 3 major peaks in the form of falling wedges formation. This is one of the common shape that you find in all historical graph of chart formation. The 4th peak marked the re-testing point of the previous correction level as shown below. At the current position now, there is strong possibility the EUR-USD may go deeper down to test 1.2175 level.

Having MACD and Full Stochastic indicators in contra-direction in the intermediate terms, a minor sign of correction could be underway where 1.2876 is the most likely level to reach. Having said that the USD economic data seems to be dominating throughout the week which could support the acceleration of the pair downfall but that is only if the expected results are better than previous and forecasted.

On the short-term perspective both MACD and Full stochastic (Daily | 4 Hourly) are moving against each another indicating the sign of sideways movement with the risk of correction up to 1.2879. Anything can happen at this point as the market will fluctuate within the range of 1.258 and 1.2826.

Let's see what the open position indicators within the short-range of trading. Read Here how to use the open position indicator. As you can see the summary of open position below the EUR-USD is very much neutral as both buyers and sellers are holding their position not even exceeding reaching range of 60% which interpret the power of bulls and bears are virtually the same.

EUR-USD
Sentiment Index Indicator Provider	Buy	Sell
OANDA	53%	46.95%
Dukas Copy	51.91%	48.09%
DailyFx	54%	46%
Forex Factory	47%	53%
Saxo Bank	58.19%	41.01%
Alpari	51%	49%

EUR-USD and USD-CAD Technical Analysis (4 Oct 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 10 Oct 2014

Time: 2:09 (AM) +8 GMT

The chart below shows the common 3 peak gradual downwards patterns that we usually find in the Forex market movement. The 4th peak indicate correction to test the old historical peak

The big-W formation is forming indicate strong upward sentiment especially at it's current level standing on the mid-pivot point the USD-CAD is aiming for the ideal resistance level at 1.2600

Technical Outlook EUR-USD and GBP-USD overall week 1 (3 to 7 Feb 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 02 February 2014

Time: 2:02 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Flag Sideway
Market Direction	Neutral	Neutral	Down	Up
Market Comments	The overall movement of the EUR-USD still going upwards in the long term. The gradual upward fluctuation should linger within 1.38046 (resistance) and support (1.33599). This is supported by the monthly time frame MACD and Stochastic both moving upwards direction, but due the correction is already reaching its 1.36733 it may or may not breakout upwards because this is the most ideal correction level based on the Chart Formation structure. Conclusion: The long-term will have gradual upwards movement. There is a possibility of breakout upwards (the unpredictable situation) In the weekly time frame both MACD and Stochastic indicators is showing the opposite. There is a strong chances the second candlestick will form another red (bearish) candle for the overall next week movement with the expected target at the previous price level = 1.34849 Conclusion: There is strong chances next week from 3 to 7 Feb 2013 could be a bearish movement for EUR-USD

GBP-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Head Shoulder
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	MACD and Stochastic moving up indicates strong bullish for the GBP-USD pair. However just like the EUR-USD it has reached an ideal place for correction and it will a lot of volumes to breakout. For the time being the long term movement is most likely to be gradual upward sideways movement with chances of breakout. An opposing direction between MACD and Stochastic in the weekly time frames indicate temporary downwards movement with high chances of reversal. We will see next week could be zig zag fluctuation for this pair within the support resistance range of 1.66220 and 1.62688 by next week from 3 to 7 Feb 2013

EUR-USD Technical Analysis (15 NOV 2013)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 15 November 2013

Time: 10:09 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	UP	DOWN	UP	UP
Full Stochastic	DOWN	UP	DOWN	UP
Bollinger Bands
Chart Formation	N/A	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Flag
Market Direction	Neutral-UP	Neutral-Down	Neutral-Down	UP
Market Comments	The is a slight upside side-way fluctuation formation in the short term and the reason behind this is driven by the monthly stochastic and MACD indicators both is going upwards. In this case the volume of fluctuation is nearly identical but the upside is always higher because of overall direction is upwards side-ways. The EUR-USD will keep slightly moving up and sideways at it is already corrected at 50% of the previous high. The movement may not be huge but enough to make some money out of it, always keeps buying when the market retraces down.

Forex Technical Analysis (19 May 2013) - Next Week Outlook

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 19 May 2013

Time: 10:19 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	Head/Shoulder	Flag
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	As discussed here (Forex Technical Analysis) Now that the Head/Shoulder formation is becoming obvious in the weekly time frame and MACD/Stochastic indicators also almost synced downward direction. There is strong indication downtrend is about to continue its course of direction. All along next week could be a major downfalls with the expected price target should be around 1.26XX

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	As discussed last week (AUD-USD Weekly outlook) the second candle has been formed as expected in the weekly time frame. Sitting at the strong resistant level the movement still have some more gas to go further down as MACD/Stochastic signal still goes down in the monthly time frame. This is the trickiest pair to trade but i have we must believe this time it should go down beyond the resistant 0.97XX

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Up	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	All the major time frame MAC/Stochastic already point upwards. Supported by Head/Shoulder formation (reverse) in the monthly time frame and also the squeezing size of the bollinger band. The major breakout that all has been waiting for is about to burst.The month of May should be bullish all along and nothing can stop it this time. The target could be as high as 1.21XX with the estimated volume of 1900 pips altogether. We will wait and see.

EUR - USD Technical Observation (12 May 2013)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 12 May 2013

Time: 10:02 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Flag
Market Direction	Down	Down	Sideway	Sideway
Market Comments	Sharp downfalls of the EUR-USD create flagging formation. Although the trend direction is down, but the flag formation create a significant near reversal fluctuation that make up nearly 90% the volume of the previous peak. The flag formation always hit the top of the Bollinger bands at maximum reversal target. At least 3 or Maximum 4 flags occurs where the last one will be based on the previous price level. In the weekly time frame there are common occurrences of Head/Shoulder formation to indicate the significant breakout to downtrend every time the trend making reversal. In the weekly time the 1st Shoulder (Top Band), Head (Higher Top Band), 2nd Shoulder (Middle Band). In Monthly Time Frame this is view as Head (Top Band) When MACD / Stochastic are moving in the opposite direction in Weekly & Monthly time frame and market support resistant falls on the shoulder (middle band) of the head/shoulder formation. The 4H time frame (MACD/Stochastic) playing important roles in the market fluctuation.  The fluctuation range with the support/resistance of the 4H time frame usually creates 3 tops or more before it continues to fall further. The market breakout when 4H and Daily time frame of MACD / Stochastic synced in one direction. There are active fluctuations along the way before reaching its target, ups and downs occurs until the target is reached and then major correction happens. This happens on the shoulder formations.

Monthly Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: Sharp downfalls create the flagging formations with a reversal of at least 90% - 95% of the previous peak.

Weekly Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: Head and Shoulder formation at every peak at each of the flag formation indicates strong downtrend.

Daily Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: More detail view of the Head and Shoulder formation shown in the daily time frame compare to the weekly time frame.

4 Hourly Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: Fluctuation occurs by the guide of MACD/Stochastic signals. This level is positioned in the middle bollinger band (Shoulder formation) of the weekly time frame.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis 10 April 2013

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 10 April 2013, Wednesday

Time: 9:17 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	N/A	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	N/A
Market Direction	Up	Up	Down	Up
Market Comments	The short term perspective = Upwards Direction, Mid-Term perspective = Side Way, Long-Term Perspective = Downward. The Head and Shoulder at the mid-term perspective  formation is very important indicator that might trigger the continuation of long-term bearish trend

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 20 March 2013

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Middle
Chart Formation	Down Trend	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	4 Flags Down
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market/Comments	Short and Intermediate term is all down. The movement is heading to the middle moving average of the bollinger band for monthly time frame. The overall perspective is major bearish.

EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 30 September 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 30 September 2012

Time: 11:12 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Middle	Top	Middle
Chart Formation	Unknown	Unknown	Unknown	3 Flags Down
Market Direction	Down	Down	Up	Down
Market/Comments	Short-Term = Down | Intermediate = Up | Long Term = Down. Strong Bullish in the intermediate trend. This may take sometimes but eventually downtrend is the way for the long term perspective.

Daily Technical Analysis - 31 August 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 31 August 2012 

Time: 4:00 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Up	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Top	Middle	Bottom
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Triple Top
Market Direction	Down	Up	Up	Down
Market Comments	Intermediate Term is correction the long-term trend is still bearish