USD-CAD Technical Analysis 02 Sept 2017

Has the USD-CAD completed the big W formation and going back to bearish trend?

As MACD and Stochastic both going down in the major time frame (monthly) - it seems the pair has completed the W formation in the for the bullish trend. The major bearish is going for resistance at 1.2109 point the previous support level. There could be head and shoulder formation coming in the way after it close near the 1.2109 level.

USD-CAD Technical Analysis 30 Aug 2017

W formation or the reverse head-shoulder formation is not yet complete in the major long term trend. Yet it is still undergoing correction process as the MAC and Stochastic in the monthly time frame both showing strong bearish trend. For the time being the correction is still underway and no sign of continuation on the bullish uptrend.

EUR-USD and GBP-USD Technical (1 - 5 December 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 29 November 2014

Time: 8:05 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	UP	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Full Stochastic	UP	DOWN	UP	DOWN
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	UP	NEUTRAL	NEUTRAL	DOWN
Market Comments	In short term EUR-USD fluctuation is very much neutral last week from 24 to 28 November 2014 as it goes up for correction at 1.2529 and then it goes down to 50% retracement at 1.24511. This 50% retracement where will the EUR-USD market goes to next week? Fundamental Perspective Forexfactory economic calender records from 1 to 5 December 2014 could be another week for high turbulence as there mix economic data between the US and Economic. Technical Perspective From technical perspective we can see that the entire trend is going down as shown by the MACD and Stochastic from monthly time frame. However in the intermediate and short term both indicators are going against each other which means the fluctuation could be neutral either ups or down. This is another factor that could confirm the turbulence fluctuation next week. Fluctuation Range: High = 1.2529 Low = 1.2361

4 Hourly Chart for EUR-USD showing the current position standing at 50% retracement level.

GBP-USD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	DOWN	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Full Stochastic	DOWN	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	DOWN	UP	DOWN	DOWN
Market Comments	Last week movement the GBP-USD make up correction to a new high at 1.58154 but then went down to the previous low at 1.5627. As the MACD and Stochastic in the daily time frame still going up there is strong chance it may go up temporarily at least 50% from the current position. However the intermediate and long term are both indicating down trend, there will be strong risk to play upside position. Where will it move next week? Fundamental Perspective: Mix economic data may cause an unpredictable situation, playing upside would be most unfavorable because of the risk of the major downtrend. Bad economic data from the UK could push the market even deeper down. Otherwise it will retrace at 50% from the current position Technical Perspective: In daily time frame there is still hope of going up at the very least up to 50% from the current position as MACD and Stochastic still synced upwards direction. However on the weekly and monthly time frame it is obvious the pair is going down big time. Range of Fluctuation High = 1.5815 Mid = 1.5712 Low = 1.5627

4 Hourly Chart for GBP-USD showing it is currently standing at the previous low level at 1.56271

USD-CAD Analysis (21 October 2014)

Fluctuating within the current position level 1.1283 the pair fighting to break 1.1406 resistance level. There is still plenty of room for upward movement as the MACD indicator in the monthly time frame still rising upward. We also knows that the current position level is near its lowest historical level and by technical instinct it should initiate upward movement to find its correction point ideally at 1.1758

However not to forget on the fundamental factors the USD has been struggling on economic challenges after that still going on since Ben Bernanke era. For the past 3 years since 2011 and even now the US economic data yield consistent data which is below the market forecast despite of the upbeat booming sentiment that we heard and read from the news. Major wars going on in some part of the middle east i.e. Lybia, Syria, Iraq, and some African countries also have some impact to the US Dollars prospect as the funding for the wars involved billions or maybe trillions of dollar debt incur by the US government.

Apart from that Canadian economy is performing better than the US. This is shown on the positive Canadian's economic data which consistently yields better result than forecasts for the past 3 years. In terms of interest rates comparison Canada (1.00%) vs US (0.25%) both economy have plenty of improvement needed. Historically the US Dollar out performed Canada was since 1992 until 2003 despite the US interest rates is relatively always lower than of the Canada as shown on the graph below but that dominance has shifted to the Canadian dollar since 2004 until presents.

As far as we know currently sitting near its lowest historical level the USD-CAD is trying to move up as least for correction but the fundamental challenges such as wars and poor economic data from the US could prevent the pair from its intended direction and possibly keep it moving sideways. Anything can happen and it depends on the sentiment of the big players for now.

USD-CAD Technical Analysis (01 Feb 2014)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 01 February 2014

Time: 6:30 AM (+8 GMT)

USD-CAD
Technical.Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	W Formation
MarketDirection	Down	Up	Up	Up
Market Comments	The long term market direction for USD-CAD is strongly bullish. This is supported by the MACD and Stochastic both pointing upwards direction. The reverse head and shoulder formation (W) in the monthly time frame as well as the strong sentiments of american economy booms are all the ingredients for strong bullish for this pair. On the other hands Canadian economy is somewhat stagnant or gradually slowing down. This can be viewed by the weakness of Canadian dollars not only against the USD but also EURO and Britain Pounds. The chart below is showing the W (reverse head and shoulder) formation with ideal target at 1.27903. Meaning that the continuation of bullish for the entire month of February is imminent. It could be spiking all the way we will wait and see. Significant Economic Factors That will Affect USD-CAD in February 2014. The first and third weeks might be a strong turbulence as there are more economic factors to stir the market movement. Week 1: Significant turbulence in the market movement Treasury Sec Lew Speaks (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment (USD) Building Permits m/m (CAD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD) Trade Balance (CAD) Trade Balance (USD) Unemployment Claims (USD) Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity q/q (USD) Ivey PMI (CAD) Employment Change (CAD) Unemployment Rate (CAD) Non-Farm Employment Change (USD) Unemployment Rate (USD) Week 2: Fed Chairperson Yellen Testifies (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m (USD) Retail Sales m/m (USD) Unemployment Claims (USD) Manufacturing Sales m/m (CAD) Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD) Week 3: Significant turbulence in market movement Building Permits (USD) PPI m/m (USD) Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD) Core CPI m/m (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m (CAD) G7 Meetings Existing Home Sales (USD) Week 4: CB Consumer Confidence (USD) New Home Sales (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (USD) Unemployment Claims (USD) GDP m/m (CAD) Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (USD) Pending Home Sales m/m

Forex Technical Analysis (19 May 2013) - Next Week Outlook

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 19 May 2013

Time: 10:19 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	Head/Shoulder	Flag
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Neutral	Neutral
Market Comments	As discussed here (Forex Technical Analysis) Now that the Head/Shoulder formation is becoming obvious in the weekly time frame and MACD/Stochastic indicators also almost synced downward direction. There is strong indication downtrend is about to continue its course of direction. All along next week could be a major downfalls with the expected price target should be around 1.26XX

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	As discussed last week (AUD-USD Weekly outlook) the second candle has been formed as expected in the weekly time frame. Sitting at the strong resistant level the movement still have some more gas to go further down as MACD/Stochastic signal still goes down in the monthly time frame. This is the trickiest pair to trade but i have we must believe this time it should go down beyond the resistant 0.97XX

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	N/A	N/A	N/A	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Up	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	All the major time frame MAC/Stochastic already point upwards. Supported by Head/Shoulder formation (reverse) in the monthly time frame and also the squeezing size of the bollinger band. The major breakout that all has been waiting for is about to burst.The month of May should be bullish all along and nothing can stop it this time. The target could be as high as 1.21XX with the estimated volume of 1900 pips altogether. We will wait and see.

Daily Technical Analysis - 28 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 28 May 2012

Time: 9:23 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Down	Flag Downward	Flag Downward	Flag Down
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term and Long-term down trend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Flag Upward	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Down	Sideway Trending	Sideway trending
Market Comments	Short-term downtrend | Long-term sideway and downtre

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Head/Shoulder	Sideway trending	Sideway trending
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Up
Market Comments	Sideway trending gradual downwards

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Down	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Neutral	Down	Down	Neutral
Market Comments	Short-term downtrend and Long-term sideway downward

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally Downward	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Flag Upward
Market Direction	Up	Neutral	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short and Intermediate term goes down but the true direction based on chart formation is upward trending

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Up	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	Rally Up	Unknown Sideway	Double Bottom	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Down	Up	Up	Up
Market Comments	The pair is waiting for major break out for uptrend

Daily Technical Analysis - 19 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 19 May 2012

Time: 11:38 AM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Up	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Unknown	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downward
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short-term upward retracement while the intermediate term is neutral and long-term is downtrend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Up	Up
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Gradual upward	Double Top	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Up	Down	Up	Up
Market Comments	Short-term is retracement downward while the intermediate is upward and long term is gradual sideway uptrend. The bollinger band in Monthly time frame is squeezing smaller - which indicates sign of breakout.

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally downward	Double Top	Double Bottom	Unknown
Market Direction	Down	Down	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	This is odd pair. Despite of the long-term indicators all showing upward the market is moving downtrend. However the Bollingerband is getting squeezed which indicate a sign of breakout anytime soon most probably uptrend.

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Rally downtrend	Rally downtrend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Up
Market Comments	The short-term all heading downtrend. In the long-term is gradual sideway downtrend

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Rally Uptrend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	All indicators showing downtrend but the true direction of this pair based on the long-term (monthly time frame) is showing uptrend. Currently there are only 2 peaks of the flag for the long-term and 1 peak left to go. So there is still strong fuel of trend in the long-term.

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Top
Chart Formation	Rally Uptrend	Rally Uptrend	Double Bottom	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Up	Up	Up	Up
Market Comments	All short-term showing uptrend and the Bollinger Band is also squeezing. This may indicate major long-term uptrend in the near future.

Daily Technical Analysis - 17 May 2012

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9

Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7

Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2

Date: 17 May 2012

Time: 11:19 PM (+8 GMT)

EUR-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom	Bottom
Chart Formation	Gradual downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Head/Shoulder	Flag Downtrend
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Short Term and Long-term downtrend

GBP-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Head/Shoulder	Flag Uptrend	Sideway Trending	Head/Shoulder
Market Direction	Down	Down	Neutral	Sideway Up
Market Comments	The trend is moving sideway but the major breakout waiting for downtrend

GBP-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Middle
Chart Formation	Gradual Downtrend	Double Top	Sideway downtrend	Gradual downtrend
Market Direction	Down	Down	Neutral	Up
Market Comments	Gradual sideway downtrend waiting for the long-term major breakout uptrend

EUR-JPY
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Down	Down	Down	Up
Full Stochastic	Down	Down	Down	Up
Bollinger Bands	Bottom	Bottom	Middle	Bottom
Chart Formation	Rally downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Sideway downtrend	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Down	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	Market is gradually going down and waiting for the major breakout in long-term

AUD-USD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Down	Down	Down
Full Stochastic	Up	Down	Down	Down
Bollinger Bands	Middle	Bottom	Bottom	Middle
Chart Formation	Gradual downtrend	Head/Shoulder	Double Top	Flag Uptrend
Market Direction	Up	Down	Down	Down
Market Comments	This is tricky - indicators shows downtrend but the true movement is uptrend

USD-CAD
Technical Indicators	4 Hourly	Daily	Weekly	Monthly
MACD	Up	Up	Up	Up
Full Stochastic	Up	Up	Up	Down
Bollinger Bands	Top	Top	Top	Middle
Chart Formation	Rally Uptrend	Unknown	Unknown	Double Bottom
Market Direction	Up	Up	Up	Neutral
Market Comments	At the bottom of downtrend and there is strong possibility of uptrend in long term

USD-CAD & GBP-USD connection technical analysis

A significant correlation between USD-CAD and GBP-USD can be a very important indicator that both pairs is near it's end of movement. As you can see MACD, Slow Stochastic, and Bollinger Band each of the indicators has reach a significant point where resistance is strong enough to hold them not to move any further. Below is my analysis of both pairs

USD-CAD (Monthly Time Frame)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence = Still moving upward (waiting for continuation)

Slow Stochastic = Move downward (major retracement line)

Bollinger Bands = Middle Band Position. This is an ideal position for the first retracement, that's why the resistance should hold here stronger

GBP-USD (Monthyl Time Frame)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) = Move downward (waiting for continuation)

Slow Stochastic = Moving Upward (major retracement line)

Bollinger Bands = Middle Band Position. An ideal position for first retracement, and resistance is strong to prevent the pair to move any further.

So the conclusion of this analysis is to use the correlation of the two pairs (USD-CAD & GBP-USD) as a guide to predict the movement of each when one is moving on its direction. As long as USD-CAD is moving downward, the likelyhood of the GBP-USD to continue upward is also strong. However if the USD-CAD start to reverse (upward movement) based on the above analysis then GBP-USD also will reverse to the opposite direction (downward movement).

We will see the impact of this correlation when the major market movement start to take effect on both market.

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USD-CAD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)

Recent downturn of USD-CAD is the result of upside major correction which takes place for the 3 months earlier. At this point we witness again that the US Dollar is still not yet recover from weakness against the Canadian Dollar.

Throughout my personal experience this is normal and it shows that USD-CAD recovery is nowhere near. Historical statistic from my observational experience there are two possibilities in this case that the pair might target the middle bollinger band lines of the weekly time frame or worse case back to the bottom.

However since the pair is moving from the top bollinger band line therefore the perfect target with the highest probability should be the middle band line. If it moves directly to the bottom band then it is oversold again. Anyway we do not want to speculate too much in this case because the unexpected can happen anytime. This is proven as it happens time and time again during my years of trading observation and analysis.

Based purely on technical perspective we can expect that the USD-CAD should reverse upside again by the month of June. We will wait and see...

Forex USD-CAD Technical Analysis

It was a long bearish trend since 5 years ago (2003), the pair has been moving downwards relentlessly and pushing for excessive oversold in December 2007. At that time everyone must be thinking it will not be going up anytime soon as the pair generally moving in flat direction for at least 10 months in the year 2008. It is a long time to wait and many traders have already forget their analysis and expectation of this pair.

As of today after 10 months later (October 2009) since January 2008 suddenly we are now witnessing that long awaiting expectation for a shift of power from the bear to the bull. However we still cannot confirmed a continuous trend because this is only the first move. Until the monthly slow stochastic is moving upwards for the second time after correction then we can confirmed the bull is taking full control of the situation.

At it current position (see picture) actually it is simply overbought, therefore we may expect a small correction to take place before continuation.

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