Friday, July 24, 2009

USD-CAD & GBP-USD connection technical analysis

A significant correlation between USD-CAD and GBP-USD can be a very important indicator that both pairs is near it's end of movement. As you can see MACD, Slow Stochastic, and Bollinger Band each of the indicators has reach a significant point where resistance is strong enough to hold them not to move any further. Below is my analysis of both pairs

USD-CAD (Monthly Time Frame)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence = Still moving upward (waiting for continuation)
Slow Stochastic = Move downward (major retracement line)
Bollinger Bands = Middle Band Position. This is an ideal position for the first retracement, that's why the resistance should hold here stronger

GBP-USD (Monthyl Time Frame)

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) = Move downward (waiting for continuation)
Slow Stochastic = Moving Upward (major retracement line)
Bollinger Bands = Middle Band Position. An ideal position for first retracement, and resistance is strong to prevent the pair to move any further.

So the conclusion of this analysis is to use the correlation of the two pairs (USD-CAD & GBP-USD) as a guide to predict the movement of each when one is moving on its direction. As long as USD-CAD is moving downward, the likelyhood of the GBP-USD to continue upward is also strong. However if the USD-CAD start to reverse (upward movement) based on the above analysis then GBP-USD also will reverse to the opposite direction (downward movement).

We will see the impact of this correlation when the major market movement start to take effect on both market.

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