Sunday, May 12, 2013

EUR - USD Technical Observation (12 May 2013)

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9
Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7
Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2
Date: 12 May 2013
Time: 10:02 PM (+8 GMT)

Technical Indicators 4 Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly
MACD Down Down Down Up
Full Stochastic Down Down Up Down
Bollinger Bands Bottom Bottom Middle Middle
Chart Formation Head/Shoulder Head/Shoulder Head/Shoulder Flag
Market Direction Down Down Sideway Sideway
Market Comments
  • Sharp downfalls of the EUR-USD create flagging formation. Although the trend direction is down, but the flag formation create a significant near reversal fluctuation that make up nearly 90% the volume of the previous peak.
  • The flag formation always hit the top of the Bollinger bands at maximum reversal target.
  • At least 3 or Maximum 4 flags occurs where the last one will be based on the previous price level.
  • In the weekly time frame there are common occurrences of Head/Shoulder formation to indicate the significant breakout to downtrend every time the trend making reversal.
  • In the weekly time the 1st Shoulder (Top Band), Head (Higher Top Band), 2nd Shoulder (Middle Band). In Monthly Time Frame this is view as Head (Top Band)
  • When MACD / Stochastic are moving in the opposite direction in Weekly & Monthly time frame and market support resistant falls on the shoulder (middle band) of the head/shoulder formation. The 4H time frame (MACD/Stochastic) playing important roles in the market fluctuation. 
  • The fluctuation range with the support/resistance of the 4H time frame usually creates 3 tops or more before it continues to fall further.
  • The market breakout when 4H and Daily time frame of MACD / Stochastic synced in one direction. There are active fluctuations along the way before reaching its target, ups and downs occurs until the target is reached and then major correction happens. This happens on the shoulder formations.

Monthly Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: Sharp downfalls create the flagging formations with a reversal of at least 90% - 95% of the previous peak.

Weekly Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: Head and Shoulder formation at every peak at each of the flag formation indicates strong downtrend.

Daily Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: More detail view of the Head and Shoulder formation shown in the daily time frame compare to the weekly time frame.

4 Hourly Time Frame EUR-USD Chart: Fluctuation occurs by the guide of MACD/Stochastic signals. This level is positioned in the middle bollinger band (Shoulder formation) of the weekly time frame.

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