Wednesday, April 1, 2015

EUR-CHF Technical Analysis 1 April 2015

MACD Settings:- First EMA = 12 | Second EMA = 26 | Signal EMA = 9
Stochastic Settings:- Period = 5 | Average Period Fast = 7 | Average Period Full =7
Bollinger Bands Settings:- Average = 20 | Standard Deviation = 2
Date: 1 April 2015
Time: 7:33 PM (+8 GMT)

Technical Indicators 4 Hourly Daily Weekly Monthly
Fibonacci Retracement 0% 0% 0% 0%
MACD Down Down Down Up
Full Stochastic Down Down Down Up
Bollinger Band N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chart Formation N/A N/A N/A N/A
Market Direction Down Down Down Up
Marke Comment The EUR-CHF is on a strange land - currently sit at the new lowest point there is strong possibility it could go further down if there is no monetary intervention or improve economic data from the Euro Zone. Such situation is very dangerous for traders because the market good go further down or reverse unexpectedly as the technical indicators becoming less effective in determining the market movement. This is call oversold position as it heats new low beyond the historical level. Based on historical statistic of other pairs with the like of EUR-USD, GBP-USD, AUD-USD, etc it not new.

Technical Analysis Perspective:

First and foremost we will see the market in terms of historical price - as you can see in the monthly time frame it is obviously exceed the previous major support at 1.1345 and falls on the new lowest point at 1.0417. As this is a new lowest point it becomes one loose position that could trigger corrective action up to the previous support at 1.1345 in the long-term period. This is supported by Fibonacci retracement indicator already falls on 0% and MACD as well as Stochastic both pointing upwards.

However not to underestimate the market - as market fluctuating on the oversold position most traders who have loss could have less interest to trade on the upside of this pair. So moving further down is still a possibility

Fundamental Analysis Perspective:

Minor improvement on the Euro Zone economic data and poor performance from the Swiss economy could trigger breakout upside for major correction. Always watch-out for important economic data on Forex Factory economic calendar especially highly relevant data to the EUR-CHF and even the currency correlation effect could potential help the correction process.

Possible Range of Fluctuation in Long-Term (Monthly):

Highest: 1.1345
Average: 1.0422 (current position)
Lowest: 0.9884

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