Sunday, November 2, 2008

forex EUR-USD Post Analysis

I have discussed about the intermediate correction of the eur-usd pair here EUR-USD Technical Analysis and EUR-USD Technical Analysis on the 29 and 30 October last Thursday. At that time i was expected the market to move at its ideal position which is somewhere around 1.2831 which at the upper bollinger band line of the 4 hourly time frame. Why did i expect that because both MACD and Slow Stochastic on the 4 hourly time frame are both moving upwards direction.

However instead of reaching up to 1.2831, the pair gone for overshot until reaching 1.3236 temporarily which is somewhere in the middle band of the daily time frame. The reason why it was only for a temporary movement because 1.2831 is the ideal position where it should be. And for that you can see the market move back somewhere at 1.2831 again quickly.

The overshot target maybe the results of anxiety from the oversold position in the long-term monthly time frame. Every traders are expecting huge correction to take place from the oversold position. However from the daily time frame view only slow stochastic is moving up and MACD did not therefore the market only move temporarily until the middle band of the daily time frame. It would be a different case if both MACD and Slow stochastic move in the same direction the ideal target correction should be 1.3236

4 Hourly time frame view shows the ideal position and overbought target (temporary) and then retrace back to the ideal position.

Daily time frame shows MACD and Slows stochastic not yet moving in line. Only stochastic is moving up but MACD not yet. And also temporary correction point on the middle bollinger band line of daily time frame. If both MACD and Slow Stochastic was moving in line this will be a solid correction point instead of just a temporary one.

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