Saturday, May 31, 2008

Fundamental Analysis Dilemma

Experience traders usually rely heavily on the fundamental analysis more than technical in their daily trading. This is because they have already study for so many years about the behavior of market movement affected by each of the economic data. Despite of their overall success there are certain times they still at least incur some losses. And their only solution to cut that losses is by putting a stop loss limit so that the market will not slide away too far of the expectation.

As for the beginner forex traders please don't mess up with the economic data if you totally have no idea how it works. However I would suggest take your time to make a thorough study in order to build your own experience on the market behavior for each of the economic data such as interest rates, non farm payrolls, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), etc. These are the unexplainable facts that you cannot find in any forex books written by any experts because they don't know the effect on the market either. This is where you have to be your own experts in forex trading.

The very problem of fundamental factors is because they are so unpredictable especially its immediate effect which can drive you crazy. Take for example during non-farm payrolls data release, some traders consider it as profitable and some others see it dangerous time of trade. The fact is no one really knows and when it happens they either could be wrong or right. No matter what figures comes out whether it is as expected or not the market still can go crazy moving at any directions i.e. ups, downs, or up and downs defying all the technical rules. As a result some traders will make huge profits in matter of seconds i.e. 200 pips or more and others may suffer great losses. Some can even profit in both direction to double their pips earning.

Now in this topic I will discuss how can we use technical advantage to solve the problems of fundamental factors dilemma. And for that reason I am not going to discuss how to make profits in both directions or straight win on the first setup but rather to identify the point of overbought/oversold positions. Furthermore I will not guarantee you will make profits because the market will be very fast moving and the likelihood for you to miss the boat is very high. In this case if you miss it just let it go.

In order to make discussion easier to understand i am going to use 4 hourly time frames which is one of the most difficult for the market to break its resistance without solid support. During non-farm payrolls data or significant economic data the market may shake vigorously without any direction. The quicker it moves the weaker the foundation of the movement. Most often it will pass the resistance level in this case 4 hourly time frames and create overbought/oversold positions. You can see this on the Bollinger Bands indicator. So this is chance for you to setup your position, but don't do it too quickly when it is still moving underway and let it go slide further away from the resistance level to create super overbought/oversold position. As it is reside far outside the B. Bands resistance lines then just setup your position.

At this point even the most powerful trader with most money including those brokers traders use to call "bucket shop" will not dare to try any further move because it is already too far from the moving average.

The market will eventually make corrections to normalize the overbought/oversold situation to the ideal position where the market supposed to be. Or in fact you may get lucky if the market make total reversal you will make good profit for the day.

I am sorry for unable to provide visual image of the non-farm payroll data because it happens less regularly at this point of time. Therefore i am unable to get the recent chart. You will find out yourself someday and check economic calender here at forexfactory

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